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["Год","Месяц","Total Production of Crude Steel","Lt = экспоненциально сглаженный ряд","Tt = значение тренда","St-s  — коэффициент сезонности предыдущего периода;","p - номер периода для прогноза","Прогноз по методу Хольта Ŷt+p = Lt + p *Tt ","Проноз для оценки модели","Ошибка модели","Отклонение ошибки модели от прогнозной модели","Точность прогноза"]
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[2009,1,86.590999999999994,83.612757626776812,0.8826185562563349,1.026516968917619,null,null,84.495376183033144]
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[2011,1,128.059,124.30538599148458,7.1579459791383346,1.0272546585734501,null,null,131.46333197062293]
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[2014,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,13,127.74695543070274,127.74695543070274]
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[2015,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,25,129.54668178120463,129.54668178120463]
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[null,12,null,null,null,0.99123833952718798,36,126.97089300020609,126.97089300020609]
[2016,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,37,131.34640813170651,131.34640813170651]
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[null,12,null,null,null,0.99123833952718798,48,128.71265426801824,128.71265426801824]
[2017,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,49,133.1461344822084,133.1461344822084]
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[null,9,null,null,null,1.0122912784599678,57,132.78045188521708,132.78045188521708]
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[null,12,null,null,null,0.99123833952718798,60,130.45441553583044,130.45441553583044]
[2018,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,61,134.94586083271028,134.94586083271028]
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[null,12,null,null,null,0.99123833952718798,72,132.1961768036426,132.1961768036426]
[2019,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,73,136.74558718321214,136.74558718321214]
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[null,12,null,null,null,0.99123833952718798,84,133.93793807145477,133.93793807145477]
[2020,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,85,138.54531353371405,138.54531353371405]
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[2021,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,97,140.34503988421594,140.34503988421594]
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[2022,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,109,142.14476623471782,142.14476623471782]
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[2023,1,null,null,null,1.0242263347121281,121,143.94449258521968,143.94449258521968]
[null,2,null,null,null,0.99217044671285004,122,139.58464999998523,139.58464999998523]
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{"sheet":"Forecast4AC PRO","index":1,"n_rows":6,"n_cols":1,"rows_kept":6,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[]
["Уважаемые коллеги, предлагаем вам программу для прогнозирования в Excel Forecast4AC PRO"]
["Программа Forecast4AC PRO рассчитает для вас прогноз в Excel быстро и легко, одним нажатием клавиши, значительно сэкономив ваше время.\nТеперь каждый руководитель и менеджер сможет сделать прогноз с учётом роста и сезонности одним нажатием клавиши. Это позволит эффективно управлять будущим, извлекая максимум прибыли и избегая необоснованных убытков.\n \nВозможности Forecast4AC PRO:\n\n• Расчет прогноза с учетом роста и сезонности по дням, месяцам, кварталам\n• 8 уравнений тренда с возможностью автоматического выбора оптимального\n• Расчет коэффициентов сезонности, очищенных от роста\n• 4 способа расчета прогноза по методу скользящей средней \n• 4 варианта графического анализа данных\n• Автоматическая корректировка дефицита и пиков\n• Расчет доверительного интервала с возможностью задать Сигма от 1 до 3\n• Анализ каждого этапа вычисления\n• Удобное меню на панеле инструментов в Excel\n\nЛегко интегрировать в имеющиеся бизнес процессы, т.к. прогноз можно рассчитать на основании данных OLAP-кубов, аналитических BI систем, сводных таблиц и отчетов в Excel из учетных систем.\n\nИнтуитивно понятный интерфейс, простота установки и настройки позволяет моментально приступить к работе. "]
["Зарегистрируйтесь и протестируйте Forecast4AC PRO \n4analytics.ru"]
[]
["Зарегистрируйтесь  на сайте 4analytics.ru и протестируйте Forecast4AC PRO"]

{"sheet":"ForLin","index":2,"n_rows":20,"n_cols":161,"rows_kept":20,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
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[null,"данные с прогнозом","номер периода",1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12]
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[null,"данные с прогнозом","Коэффициенты тренда",{"$f":"LINEST(D3:FC3,D1:FC1,TRUE,TRUE)","v":0.41569970444595461},64.316688585607977]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","Cтандартная ошибка для коэффициентов",1.2810723047747536E-2,1.1593645376831989]
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[null,"данные с прогнозом","отклонения текущего месяца от сложившегося тренда",1.043913283366108,1.0079804645309622,1.0809168061707248,1.0503719068971935,1.0891301485836715,1.0374506806764352,1.0505516293382624,1.0027159605194844,1.0053926672878555,1.0372889869507957,0.99392670826598506,0.9824098760101927,0.99022121242733319,0.91829524258359241,1.0112798187223349,0.99099756365804959,0.99147446050158672,0.97541363666397418,0.95351403777977883,0.93190642725072981,0.95045090172713487,0.95999184885501143,0.913400461775697,0.91301415194844882,0.92683387624928038,0.88271687361754292,0.97739518822918514,0.94975688258410518,0.99076912744168155,0.96969983039595198,0.96456917503014994,0.96100083688326976,0.9681452440883348,0.98813928794157302,0.96722069841764768,0.95353442626337415,0.94798364301223326,0.88730610389838172,1.0098725076368138,0.96995878097638821,0.99863107236314141,0.96826607127897524,0.95756539094601567,0.94539869970006862,0.95299896357554537,0.98986233946440405,0.98014926793641377,0.96532259542460919,0.9803984765950523,0.95334200104138433,1.0219093081405,0.99486724726247311,1.004530777514502,0.98604875257051794,0.99429718573791337,0.98613094422872094,1.013548539554644,1.0202960978805495,1.0204296280125387,1.0252001192282501,1.0296698981734496,0.9542561100318131,1.0419335699341057,1.0382696225927077,1.0523536108918985,1.0129819474084556,0.98833041678217282,0.99729685731690476,1.0085917428054201,1.0609569275837587,1.0130727328193887,1.0178247742058006,1.010312745133813,0.96326753222586403,1.0729137060623222,1.0644368939952589,1.099261645544152,1.0870025259778033,1.0732014914815906,1.0507451042942733,1.0591767744592355,1.0854937822475081,1.059575490810964,1.0741825146180075,1.0840314979318015,1.0142118658166881,1.1259266957955827,1.0945976390413859,1.1160653226260475,1.1052135415111872,1.0807343395074802,1.0632982782850153,1.0878959369503705,1.111318940540001,1.0590978537911295,1.0784574642592826,1.0817610480198079,1.0215956858025623,1.137061810821248,1.1126425281431758,1.146221038275834,1.1182830885937514,1.0947529707943011,1.0506515073252385,1.0005728000492822,0.91562294773878328,0.79516303103923436,0.74950378738629908,0.78986239338056696,0.78440687159134237,0.83205265277658325,0.80797253818093651,0.86318939823635543,0.90355566379024654,0.93936832001370441,0.96340916283766642,0.98185489581248853,1.0149753679609532,0.95474838051818856,0.94431158714575125,0.98408296217227609,0.93204457056774925,1.0477293638116436,1.0437027205598104,1.07247944485046,1.0135065826471743,0.97717924622267727,0.96585230338822836,0.95551243269498021,0.98668738217255603,0.96203399270090073,0.96625487335538884,1.0706849082013123,0.9862652656663381,1.0782310910552897,1.0483414336442467,1.0717706595213692,1.0492323496389464,1.0422612364963455,1.0145807283673192,1.0000703901658927,1.0015156820035511,0.93217818452898238,0.94266715693005321,0.99337727829701206,0.96822748485592924,1.0575043334048706,1.029869261308749,1.0406401098206652,1.0059946782247902,1.0122959217999099,0.97022781925524737,0.96661362319965105,0.97460196193394577,0.94749409492648962,0.93904857253227703]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","сезонность",0.99485640176615742,0.94414739017154992,1.0380559117354773,1.0150603860649601,1.0412705243208744,1.0178961037983238,1.0098939509177156,0.99255497151170524,0.99621730095160277,1.0112885810210301,0.96911465581104317,0.96551783840828742,{"$f":"SUM(D8:O8)/12","v":0.99965616803989399}]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","индексы сезонности",0.99519858284559193,0.94447212987523044,1.0384129512959208,1.0154095163092629,1.0416286695480277,1.0182462093883684,1.0102413041655069,0.99289636101369472,0.99655995011261311,1.0116364139521539,0.96944798301126278,0.96584992848236573]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","номера прогнозных периодов",157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164,165,166,167,168,169,170,171,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,179,180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188,189,190,191,192,193,194,195,196,197,198,199,200,201,202,203,204,205,206,207,208,209,210,211,212,213,214,215,216,217,218,219,220,221,222,223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,232,233,234,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,244,245,246,247,248,249,250,251,252,253,254,255,256,257,258,259,260,261,262,263,264,265,266,267,268,269,270,271,272,273,274,275,276]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","прогнозный тренд",129.58154218362284,129.9972418880688,130.41294159251476,130.82864129696071,131.24434100140667,131.66004070585262,132.07574041029858,132.49144011474453,132.90713981919049,133.32283952363645,133.7385392280824,134.15423893252836,134.56993863697431,134.98563834142027,135.40133804586623,135.81703775031218,136.23273745475814,136.64843715920409,137.06413686365005,137.479836568096,137.89553627254196,138.31123597698792,138.72693568143387,139.14263538587983,139.55833509032576,139.97403479477171,140.38973449921767,140.80543420366362,141.22113390810958,141.63683361255553,142.05253331700149,142.46823302144745,142.8839327258934,143.29963243033936,143.71533213478531,144.13103183923127,144.5467315436772,144.96243124812315,145.37813095256911,145.79383065701506,146.20953036146102,146.62523006590698,147.04092977035293,147.45662947479889,147.87232917924484,148.2880288836908,148.70372858813676,149.11942829258271,149.53512799702867,149.95082770147462,150.36652740592058,150.78222711036653,151.19792681481249,151.61362651925845,152.0293262237044,152.44502592815036,152.86072563259631,153.27642533704227,153.69212504148823,154.10782474593418,154.52352445038014,154.93922415482609,155.35492385927205,155.770623563718,156.18632326816396,156.60202297260992,157.01772267705587,157.43342238150183,157.84912208594778,158.26482179039374,158.68052149483967,159.09622119928562,159.51192090373158,159.92762060817753,160.34332031262349,160.75902001706945,161.1747197215154,161.59041942596136,162.00611913040731,162.42181883485327,162.83751853929923,163.25321824374518,163.66891794819111,164.08461765263706,164.50031735708302,164.91601706152898,165.33171676597493,165.74741647042089,166.16311617486684,166.5788158793128,166.99451558375875,167.41021528820471,167.82591499265067,168.24161469709662,168.65731440154258,169.07301410598853,169.48871381043449,169.90441351488045,170.3201132193264,170.73581292377236,171.15151262821831,171.56721233266427,171.98291203711022,172.39861174155618,172.81431144600214,173.23001115044809,173.64571085489405,174.06141055934,174.47711026378596,174.89280996823192,175.30850967267787,175.72420937712383,176.13990908156978,176.55560878601574,176.97130849046169,177.38700819490765,177.80270789935361,178.21840760379953,178.63410730824549,179.04980701269145]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","прогноз скорректированный на сезонность",128.95936714408774,122.77877192392987,135.4224875662658,132.84464737874492,136.7078683030029,134.06233737665272,133.42836824072498,131.55026875539372,132.44993262782256,134.87423927361007,129.65255710553714,129.57286207858871,133.92381222513509,127.49017334688877,140.6025030496246,137.90991260860139,141.90392506388548,139.14175315620423,138.46785237945338,136.50322944121999,137.42116874851644,139.92068277305017,134.48854798569926,134.39090443629993,138.88825730618242,132.20157476984764,145.78251853298337,142.97517783845782,147.09998182476804,144.22116893575571,143.50733651818172,141.45619012704626,142.39240486921031,144.96712627249028,139.32453886586134,139.2089467940111,143.85270238722975,136.91297619280652,150.96253401634215,148.04044306831426,152.29603858565059,149.3005847153072,148.54682065691006,146.40915081287253,147.36364098990416,150.01356977193038,144.16052974602343,144.02698915172226,148.81714746827711,141.62437761576544,156.14254949970095,153.1057082981707,157.4920953465332,154.38000049485873,153.58630479563843,151.36211149869882,152.33487711059803,155.06001327137051,148.99652062618554,148.84503150943348,153.7815925493245,146.33577903872435,161.32256498305975,158.17097352802716,162.68815210741579,159.45941627441024,158.62578893436682,156.31507218452512,157.3061132312919,160.10645677081061,153.83251150634766,153.66307386714465,158.74603763037183,151.04718046168324,166.50258046641852,163.2362387578836,167.88420886829834,164.53883205396173,163.66527307309516,161.26803287035139,162.27734935198575,165.15290027025071,158.66850238650974,158.48111622485584,163.71048271141916,155.75858188464213,171.68259594977729,168.30150398774003,173.0802656291809,169.61824783351321,168.70475721182351,166.22099355617766,167.24858547267959,170.19934376969081,163.50449326667186,163.29915858256703,168.67492779246652,160.46998330760101,176.8626114331361,173.3667692175965,178.27632239006351,174.69766361306472,173.7442413505519,171.17395424200396,172.21982159337347,175.24578726913094,168.34048414683397,168.11720094027825,173.63937287351388,165.18138473055993,182.0426269164949,178.43203444745293,183.4723791509461,179.77707939261623,178.78372548928027,176.12691492783026,177.19105771406734,180.29223076857105,173.17647502699606,172.93524329798942]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","дисперсия",0.2283240669993267,4.176033721461566E-2,0.42612490641380002,0.26695095574466371,0.4753301699813115,0.20097456754755708,0.27296713973656112,1.4756245813746356E-2,2.9479279852001564E-2,0.2050871454694273,3.3605518761055976E-2,9.7919266686807366E-2,5.4762268405403769E-2,0.46028358724893587,6.3921467112173475E-2,5.1316386265996383E-2,4.8882607959948733E-2,0.14179096399462751,0.26963936083656631,0.39724679187983436,0.29071578854802343,0.23607275386331522,0.51388219941134972,0.51907900472987689,0.4390542392518495,0.70770698445039637,0.1371561748116118,0.30653101095780944,5.6625357416902791E-2,0.18688341224554805,0.21971096247832067,0.24314084656293486,0.19966256054996984,7.4737834586292948E-2,0.20764651320031652,0.29589619712736254,0.33298080980331818,0.72516868778707022,6.3857779313193905E-2,0.1953169778043016,8.945973179583476E-3,0.20844153415962485,0.28014489991127911,0.36229011693866553,0.31343026142205432,6.7942314190110834E-2,0.1337018569078868,0.23472272816448189,0.13333232853764757,0.31893219512767557,0.15049330100228436,3.5427853319305008E-2,3.1424115164721302E-2,9.7227501006118128E-2,3.9933842536030384E-2,9.7580870031891156E-2,9.5778142754278942E-2,0.14415606667354861,0.14578662565069336,0.18067046484440052,0.21370689958163225,0.33101232896070326,0.30484021211785578,0.27948260164387556,0.38408587858632037,9.5673937896772407E-2,8.6391763646084835E-2,2.0102048692289532E-2,6.417977922892204E-2,0.45737976104603384,9.8525485211737124E-2,0.13493544113035949,7.8412920694961863E-2,0.28052167707222547,0.55926825161467586,0.49640029848095019,0.76799287390222393,0.67604838106222709,0.57125237895979164,0.39770080230330046,0.46575759978068171,0.67574325267513302,0.47287417051370101,0.59129281991326865,0.67260273631754275,0.11422877918386458,1.0163485277935995,0.76665175875715208,0.94450863849550404,0.85971279768274045,0.66238592889073478,0.52144505698768551,0.72701300357317478,0.92446843493674791,0.49276216597099365,0.65680367325222289,0.68718948420407633,0.18222961244241484,1.1611371288952301,0.95802708093512612,1.2484953105856098,1.0138990649325295,0.81536736714717106,0.43755711515077506,4.9673049232284517E-3,0.73453261087796273,1.7900190106693981,2.1973877339694048,1.8503728635641865,1.9056102330733387,1.490080753912737,1.7101387297126822,1.2229620864139781,0.86534472086724556,0.54604091730916382,0.33075401684395472,0.16462413930757919,0.13636626355152606,0.41357389062867556,0.51081963103942907,0.14653554506280608,0.62788076855473429,0.4425937513929647,0.40671396771036283,0.67694107027250161,0.12659930642785025,0.21466446610348222,0.32235205778996789,0.42144520265719809,0.12655926669775128,0.36219969747840419,0.32305879584151287,0.67906175921658363,0.13240660845427166,0.75678130896013407,0.46925290953237853,0.69907807985072279,0.48118879623881416,0.41446539032635521,0.14348330907399143,6.9503271446557692E-4,1.5016457088269899E-2,0.67420192872362572,0.57184766590210723,6.6277299971535752E-2,0.31902630245781255,0.57931831530608091,0.3019104794224961,0.41213629166726018,6.0992921390426572E-2,0.12551555382063709,0.30490556421887383,0.34303436202240317,0.26180476755101967,0.542987734280446,0.63236192526795398]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","дисперсия - сигма",0.42943178627775935,0.47282831554061988,0.5501478368189493,0.4803170007913154,0.53672372719050676,0.38575214657323698,0.34757538243862912,0.276408834022147,0.24006018902569085,0.31229745609285686,0.45244359980063725,0.5343688729130146]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","дисперсия - 3 сигмы",1.2882953588332779,1.4184849466218596,1.650443510456848,1.4409510023739462,1.6101711815715203,1.1572564397197109,1.0427261473158873,0.829226502066441,0.72018056707707256,0.93689236827857059,1.3573307994019117,1.6031066187390439]
[null,"данные с прогнозом","верхняя граница прогноза",130.25,124.2,137.07,134.29,138.32,135.22,134.47,132.38,133.16999999999999,135.81,131.01,131.18,135.21,128.91,142.25,139.35,143.51,140.30000000000001,139.51,137.33000000000001,138.13999999999999,140.86000000000001,135.85,135.99,140.18,133.62,147.43,144.41999999999999,148.71,145.38,144.55000000000001,142.29,143.11000000000001,145.9,140.68,140.81,145.13999999999999,138.33000000000001,152.61000000000001,149.47999999999999,153.91,150.46,149.59,147.24,148.08000000000001,150.94999999999999,145.52000000000001,145.63,150.11000000000001,143.04,157.79,154.55000000000001,159.1,155.54,154.63,152.19,153.06,156,150.35,150.44999999999999,155.07,147.75,162.97,159.61000000000001,164.3,160.62,159.66999999999999,157.13999999999999,158.03,161.04,155.19,155.27000000000001,160.03,152.47,168.15,164.68,169.49,165.7,164.71,162.1,163,166.09,160.03,160.08000000000001,165,157.18,173.33,169.74,174.69,170.78,169.75,167.05,167.97,171.14,164.86,164.9,169.96,161.88999999999999,178.51,174.81,179.89,175.86,174.79,172,172.94,176.18,169.7,169.72,174.93,166.6,183.69,179.87,185.08,180.93,179.83,176.96,177.91,181.23,174.53,174.54]
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[null,null,null,"данные за анализируемые периоды",67.575000000000003,65.668000000000006,70.869,69.302999999999997,72.313000000000002,69.313000000000002,70.625,67.825999999999993,68.424999999999997,71.027000000000001,68.471000000000004,68.085999999999999,69.039000000000001,64.406000000000006,71.347999999999999,70.328999999999994,70.775000000000006,70.034000000000006,68.858000000000004,67.685000000000002,69.427000000000007,70.522999999999996,67.48,67.831000000000003,69.242999999999995,66.313999999999993,73.832999999999998,72.14,75.667000000000002,74.460999999999999,74.468000000000004,74.591999999999999,75.549000000000007,77.52,76.281000000000006,75.597999999999999,75.552000000000007,71.084999999999994,81.323999999999998,78.513000000000005,81.248999999999995,79.180999999999997,78.703999999999994,78.096999999999994,79.120999999999995,82.593000000000004,82.19,81.347999999999999,83.025999999999996,81.131,87.391000000000005,85.492000000000004,86.74,85.554000000000002,86.683000000000007,86.381,89.203999999999994,90.221999999999994,90.658000000000001,91.507999999999996,92.334999999999994,85.968999999999994,94.301000000000002,94.400999999999996,96.119,92.944000000000003,91.093000000000004,92.334000000000003,93.799000000000007,99.11,95.058000000000007,95.927000000000007,95.638999999999996,91.585999999999999,102.45699999999999,102.09,105.887,105.158,104.26900000000001,102.524,103.78700000000001,106.81699999999999,104.70699999999999,106.59699999999999,108.02500000000001,101.489,113.136,110.443,113.07299999999999,112.43300000000001,110.392,109.053,112.02800000000001,114.902,109.943,112.401,113.19499999999999,107.324,119.92700000000001,117.81399999999999,121.846,119.34099999999999,117.285,112.997,108.027,99.236000000000004,86.510999999999996,81.855000000000004,86.590999999999994,86.319000000000003,91.908000000000001,89.584000000000003,96.064999999999998,100.93300000000001,105.324,108.42,110.904,115.06699999999999,108.636,107.84099999999999,112.792,107.215,120.958,120.92700000000001,124.70699999999999,118.271,114.438,113.51300000000001,112.69499999999999,116.782,114.264,115.167,128.059,118.372,129.858,126.694,129.971,127.67400000000001,127.259,124.301,122.93899999999999,123.533,115.36799999999999,117.05800000000001,123.768,121.03700000000001,132.637,129.59899999999999,131.387,127.431,128.65,123.70699999999999,123.648,125.075,121.99,121.29300000000001]
[null,null,null,"Коэффициенты тренда"]
[null,null,null,"Cтандартная ошибка для коэффициентов"]
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[null,null,null,"сезонность"]
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[null,null,null,"номера прогнозных периодов"]
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[null,null,null,"дисперсия"]
[null,null,null,"дисперсия - сигма"]
[null,null,null,"дисперсия - 3 сигмы"]
[null,null,null,"верхняя граница прогноза"]
[null,null,null,"нижняя граница прогноза"]
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[null,null,null,"ошибка модели"]
[null,null,null,"среднеквадратичное отклонение"]

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